Methane Removal Climate Motivation

Driven by anthropogenic climate change, Earth’s current average surface temperature has increased by >1.1°C since 1850. We are already witnessing severe impacts, including increasingly severe and unpredictable weather events that threaten biodiversity, food security, and societal stability.

Temperatures will unfortunately continue to increase while we race to decarbonize, remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and rapidly cut methane and other greenhouse gas emissions. Temperatures will only stabilize if we achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, and significantly lower short-lived climate pollutant (largely methane) emissions before natural systems are triggered to emit substantially more greenhouse gases. Current policies and action are projected to put us on a trajectory towards approximately 2.7°C of warming by 2100, with uncertainty between 2.1°C and 3.5°C. Climate stabilization requires rapid, sustained action on all fronts; methane removal could only lower peak temperature if other mitigation measures are implemented such that a peak occurs.

Our understanding of climate feedbacks and tipping elements has evolved to highlight that there are higher earth system risks that we face at lower temperatures than previously understood. Unfortunately, our proximity to these tipping elements has also increased from ongoing emissions and warming. Increasing global and regional temperatures increase these risks; every fraction of a degree matters in lowering them. It’s important to do everything we can to prevent triggering these feedbacks, which will add to the irreversible damage caused, and make returning to safe temperatures an even larger challenge. 

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Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 43x stronger than CO₂ molecule for molecule (pg 204, Table 7.15), with an atmospheric lifetime of roughly a decade. However, more methane is currently being emitted than its natural sinks can remove, so methane is accumulating in the atmosphere. This increase in atmospheric methane concentrations has caused an increase of 0.5°C in recent global average temperatures. Climate models depend on dramatic reductions in atmospheric methane levels—driven by reductions to methane emissions—in all scenarios where global warming stays below 2°C. Unfortunately, methane concentrations are not only rising, but accelerating, and there are early signs that part of this trend is driven by elevated natural methane emissions that are largely outside of our control, alongside the more addressable elevated anthropogenic emissions. 

Methane removal is a new field that explores whether there are ways to break down methane once it is already in the atmosphere faster than existing natural systems would on their own, mainly by enhancing methane’s natural removal processes. It could potentially play two important roles: (1) to address historical methane emissions in order to reduce near-term warming, lower peak temperature, and reduce natural feedback and tipping element risk, and (2) as a potential partial response to methane-emitting natural feedback loops and tipping elements to reduce how much these systems further accelerate warming. The ability of methane removal to accomplish these objectives will depend on which and whether approaches prove feasible, how quickly and broadly they may scale, and their inherent impact tradeoffs. It is not a “silver bullet” solution.

Methane removal approaches, should they prove feasible, would need to be deployed as part of a broad portfolio of other climate solutions, including greenhouse gas emissions reduction and carbon dioxide removal. These approaches may help to slow the rate of near-term warming, reduce peak temperatures, and lower the risk of natural feedbacks and tipping elements.

As the planet warms, certain climate feedbacks and tipping elements will result in increased greenhouse gas emissions. These include methane emitted from permafrost thaw and wetlands. Natural feedbacks and tipping elements have wide-ranging impacts beyond methane emissions, and should be avoided as much as possible for those reasons as well.

Permafrost thaw occurs via either gradual or abrupt processes and the nature of the thaw greatly impacts the ratio of carbon dioxide versus methane that is released. Abrupt thaw includes rapid erosion, depressions from sinking land known as thermokarsts, and other similar phenomena and is expected to occur when global temperature passes a threshold somewhere between 1.0-2.3°C, estimated at around 1.5°C. While there’s wide variation in estimates of impacts, recent research suggests that permafrost methane emissions may add approximately 0.02-0.1 °C to global average temperatures and 10-50 Mt/year to the global methane burden by 2100 under RCP4.5. 

Wetlands are expected to produce more methane due to higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns which expand wetland areas and increase the activity of methane-producing microbes. There’s early evidence that this is already starting to happen. These rising natural emissions are currently under-represented in IPCC climate models, and could lead to 30-160 Mt/yr of additional combined wetland and permafrost methane emissions above their baseline levels by 2100, which would add approximately 0.06-0.2°C to global average temperatures.

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Both wetlands and permafrost may emit even more methane than estimated, causing additional warming, human health, and ecosystem risks. Methane removal may be able to reduce some of this warming, helping to lower global temperatures, reduce overall climate impacts, and lower the risk of additional tipping elements and natural feedbacks. Climate mitigation remains the top priority, including deep emissions cuts across all greenhouse gases and climate pollutants,  and scaling up carbon dioxide removal to address historical carbon dioxide emissions—methane removal may prove to be an additional climate mitigation response.